TORONTO – Democratic elections are supposed to be about accountability. We are only a few days into the Ontario Provincial election and already several themes have emerged that may determine the outcome. For voters in the GTA, none of them are “local”.
Our team of writers deals with them on a daily basis. Also, there are organizations that “track” how responses to pollsters translate into voting intentions locally. These “poll aggregators” do a reasonably good job, plus or minus a margin of error (6%), in dividing constituencies along the lines of what may turn out to be the eventual results. From that, they, and we, track what may happen in specific constituencies.
That suggests only a few ridings, of the 124 available in Ontario, may be affected by the campaign. We are focusing on these “swing ridings” and those where a substantial self-identified, Italian population may turn the tide. These are not all in the Toronto area as the chart below indicates. (see the bar graph indicating the % of Italians and the number of ridings in which they reside)
The ones to watch in the area-code 416 are those where the incumbent is not seeking re-election. The outcome in Eglinton-Lawrence and in York South Weston-Etobicoke could therefore be very much in doubt. The sitting MPPs, both PC, are not reoffering.
Only three weeks remain in the election campaign. Not all parties have nominated their full complement of candidates. There is not much time left to make an impact. The presence of the Leader may tip the scales, or the name recognition of the individual candidate or the advertising campaign of each Party and the attention they provide to “community components of electors”.
In the last election, only 43% of the residents eligible bothered to vote. Italians have a tradition of voting. We’ll see.
Article, researches and graphics by Priscilla Pajdo, funded by Heritage Canada’s Intership Program