TORONTO – Justin Trudeau must relish the fact that his name is on everyone’s lips. Either he is a slave to punishment, or his chief advisor lives, and believes, in the predictions of a crystal ball created for other life forms.
To this humble servant, it seems that the public has made up its mind: he is no longer welcome. There is not a pollster who gives him the remotest chance of survival, let alone of victory. In his own constituency his “popularity” falls within the margin of error – he could lose his own seat.
Journalists from the CBC, which stands accused by haters as his personal communications vehicle, are taking a more “objective position” when discussing his capabilities relative to the alternatives. The CBC/Radio Canada receives circa $1.4 Billion in funding from the federal government.
A senior writer for the Toronto Star, a publication normally so solidly pro Trudeau, pro-Liberal spoke so negatively about his hubris that one could feel the earth shake beneath his feet. Last week, his own caucus MPs and former Ministers were openly calling for his resignation. Does the PM have any friends left to rally around him?
Mark Carney, the apple of his [political] eye would not appear to be one of them. It is unlikely that he can count on any of his caucus colleagues from the Italian, Portuguese or of other European origin – he purged them from Cabinet or dismissed them outright from promotion (including Ontario’s former Minister of Finance, Charles Souza).
Over the Christmas holidays, his former chief-of-staff, Gerald Butts threw him an anchor instead of a lifejacket, reportedly saying “he is widely expected to resign” … or some such encouraging words. The harsh facts of political life point to “the power-sharing couple” – the Liberals and the NDP – fighting for third and fourth place at the next election.
The election is scheduled for October 25, 2025, and must take place within five years of the last one. These rules do not apply if the government loses a confidence vote (a “money Bill”) in the House of Commons. In that case, the House is dissolved and the Governor General issues the writs for an election on the Monday closest to 36 days following.
All Opposition Parties have indicated they will vote non-confidence at the earliest opportunity. Unless the Conservatives succeed in their ploy to use the Committee structure to advance the date of a possible vote, the House is adjourned until January 27, 2025. No votes can take place until the appropriate Bill is presented and debated, thus pushing the potential call forward by several days, with an election to take place mid to late March. All signs today suggest [sadly] a catastrophic event for the Liberal Party.
Of course, Mr. Trudeau can resign at any time, as some posit he will. He may have to resign as Leader of his Party – effective the date it chooses a replacement, either via a delegated Convention, or via “elbowing out” the contenders as it did for Ignatieff. It will be messy.
The PM can prorogue the House at any time (not to exceed circa ten weeks, normally) and stay in office serving as a caretaker PM until that replacement can be presented to the Governor General. Who knows how The American President would view him and Canada on January 20, or how the other G-7 leaders will react if they are used as a backdrop to internecine Canadian politics in June.
