Those borders with the US are not opening anytime soon

di Priscilla Pajdo del July 7, 2020

TORONTO - The US is experiencing a surge in Covid-19 cases. In the midst of Independence Day celebrations over the weekend, the state of California reported over 11,700 new cases of coronavirus on Sunday alone. This is the highest single-day increase recorded in the state since the beginning of the pandemic.

In fact, both California and Florida are two states that have each recorded over 10,000 single-day increases over the weekend. New York State was the only other state to record a single-day tally of over 10,000 new Covid-19 cases earlier during the pandemic.

The US was on a three-day streak of reporting over 50,000 new coronavirus cases daily, since July 2. According to Johns Hopkins University data, Sunday’s tally of daily new cases dipped below that trend and recorded just over 45,000. In all of Ontario, over the last four months, we only registered 35, 948 cases.

The numbers from the USA, due to the national holiday, may be indicative of a likely lag in reporting. As the incubation period for Covid-19 can last up to 14 days, the next two weeks will determine how disciplined party revelers were over the 4th of July celebrations.

California, with a population just slightly larger than Canada’s, yesterday reported over 263,000 confirmed positive cases (Canada, 105,536). So far, over 26% of cases have recovered from the virus. Just as disconcerting, nearly 80% of all cases in the State remain active (see graphic). The State has, so far, recorded 6,337 deaths attributable to Covid-19, a rate of 2.4% of all confirmed positive cases.

Despite the increase of daily new cases, the situation in California seems to be slightly more favourable than that of Florida.

The Sunshine State, which reported its highest single-day tally over the weekend (over 11,000 cases) reports over 200,000 confirmed positive cases. With a population 2/3rd that of California, cases that have recovered in Florida represent only 11%. The majority of cases still remain active (84%).

Those unfortunate ones who have succumbed to the virus represent a fatality rate of 4.7%. As troublesome as that rate is, it is still below that of New York.

Similar to Florida in population at around 20 million, the State of New York (NYS) is the hardest hit State thus far since the onset of the pandemic. NYS has reported over 422,000 confirmed positive cases, more than twice that of Florida.

With just over 27% of cases recovered, a number of cases sill remain active (65%). The State has reported over 32,000 deaths from Covid-19, a rate of 7.6% of all confirmed positive cases.

Here in Ontario, we share a border with NYS. With a population nearly 2/3rd that of NYS, the province reported less than 8.5% of those reported by its American neighbour. Over 87% of cases have recovered in the province, leaving roughly 5% still active and of concern.

Over the past week, since June 29, the province’s 7-day average of daily new cases is 148. By comparison, the surge of cases reported in the US is alarming to say the least. We may not be opening borders to our American cousins any time soon.

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