Moving forward on Inconsistent Assessments

di Priscilla Pajdo del June 17, 2020

TORONTO - Ontario continues its forward march on the path to recovery… all but for three regions of the Province. This Friday, Ontario will see most of the regions across the province relax some restrictions and transition into phase two.

Of the remaining ten regions in phase one, three will not be granted the permission to advance. The city of Toronto, the Region of Peel and Windsor/Essex have not yet received the passing grade to move on.

Based on the assessment of local health trends, the Chief Medical Offi cer of Health and the review panel determined that these 3 regions have not met the necessary criteria to transition into phase two.

Public Health experts are tracking key health indicators such as: lower transmission rates of Covid-19, su€ cient hospital capacity and the ability of local public health to assist with rapid case and contact management.

The Corriere has also been keeping track of Covid-19 cases across these regions. For instance, York Region (which will transition into phase 2 this Friday), reports 2,792 confirmed positive cases.

The rate of recovery in York Region (77% of confirmed positive cases) is below that of Peel, which has an 83% recovery rate among confirmed positive cases. In terms of active cases, Peel reports a rate of 11.2% of confirmed positive cases. That rate is lower than York region’s active cases - 14.5%.

For argument’s sake, how is a region with a lower rate in recovered and higher rate of active cases given the “green light” to advance. Additionally, with respect to the rate of fatality among proved positive cases, York region, has shown a higher rate (8.2%) than that of Peel Region (5.5%).

In taking a closer look in the city of Brampton, the fatality rate is 3% among confirmed positive cases - the lowest rate across all regions in this graph; lower than that of Hamilton at 5.5%.

As the city of Hamilton prepares to “reopen” this Friday, the graph shows that 80% of the city’s confirmed positive cases have recovered. That rate of recovery in Hamilton is less than both Mississauga’s, at 81%, and Brampton’s, at nearly 85%.

Also not considered are cases that remain active. The active (unresolved) cases in Hamilton remain at a 14.4% of confirmed positive cases.

Compare that to Mississauga at 10.2% and Brampton at 12.1%, and one might ask how these values should factor into the decision-making process when advancing to the next phase.

Through the advice of medical experts, Ontario has also excluded Windsor/ Essex from advancing to the next phase. Based on the evidence that 35.5% of confi rmed cases still remain active, one could understand that this region still requires some time to see the Covid-19 situation improve.

In contrast, Haldimand/ Norfolk has been granted the permission to advance to stage two this Friday. That region is still experiencing a higher rate of cases that remain active, 56.5%.

There appears to be some inconsistencies between the data available and which data the province considers in its the decision-making process. It’s time to sort that out.

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