Beyond the polls: in politics, the base makes the difference
TORONTO – Not a day goes by that our editorial team is not inundated with political polls suggesting, nay, telling us, what Canadians feel about this our country and about those who propose to guide it to higher and better standards. By and large, theirs is an activists’ role in determining an outcome rather than measuring the results of broad or narrow initiatives. We have come to regard all of them as “hired guns” for some party or another – they may be good at what they do but that is not the point.
In Italy, by way of contrast, pollsters measure “movements” of the public towards and away from political parties and/or personalities in fractions of decimal points. One does not see “shifts” except in times of immediate, pending decisions. In Canada, an analogous situation would reflect on the public support for a couple of Hockey teams that used to dominate the sport when Moses was a mere babe discovered in the reeds of the Nile but have not won any prizes since that babe crossed the desert in search of ‘the promised land”.
People still flock to their games… probably to gaze longingly upon what serious organizations can accomplish with “game players”. In politics, analyzing the polls is still a time-honored practice going back to the Greek Oracles of Delfi or interpreters of the Auguries of Ancient Rome: consult but make sure you ask the right questions of the right people to then receive a proper answer to digest and interpret.
Like everyone else I have a bias. No need to look further than what I used to do in another life. Nonetheless, it is important to recognize merit and talent – even in others. To do that requires “leaving the house” (getting out more often) to see firsthand how people behave or respond to everyday stimuli.
I confess to being surprised at the difference (the spread) between the two main parties at the federal level. In certain communities of Southern Ontario, and beyond Italo Canadians dominate partisan political activity. Ontario claims more than 1,000,000 citizens of Italian origin or birth among its 14,000,000 inhabitants. While most of them have trended towards Federal Liberals, that tendency is much less certain today – despite the [wishful thinking] of some pollsters.
To check out that theory, I accepted an invitation to attend a fund-raiser for Anna Roberts, MP for King Vaughan, who recently did the unexpected: election as Chair of the Canada-Italy Parliamentary Association – it should have been a “slam dunk” for the government side.
That is not all. About 500 people, young and old, entrepreneurs, professionals, Arabs, Slovaks, Punjabi, Jewish, Chinese, Vietnamese, Anglo-Celts, Italians and so forth crowded the banquet hall. I was surprised at the number of former students from my earlier career and those who used to support me in my most recent one. God bless them all.
Now they are part of the 72% of the electorate in her constituency supporting Anna Roberts. If I were the other parties, I would have a second look at the polls. It is difficult not to infer that the former government and Prime Minister forgot about the base. Auguri Anna.
Here below is a photogallery from the event (photo: Corriere Canadese)
