Budget 2025: Rules of survival
TORONTO – Canadians have waited with “bated breath” for a federal budget since April of 2024. “The Budget”, once presented, in the House of Commons, debated and approved (with or without amendments) serves as authority to tax and spend the people’s money (ours) in the interests of the country (ours).
This year’s “tax and spend plan” will require several weeks of analysis of the 498-page document written in Canada’s third official language – bureaucratese, authored by accountants and edited by lawyers – before some thoughtful reflections begin to weigh in on the condition of corpus canadiensis. No rush, we have waited quite some time and Parliament will be away next week so the “serious debate” will start on November 17, but discussion is already centered on “can/will the government survive”?
As they say in the marketplace: let the haggling begin!
An MP from Nova Scotia – the Province, not the bank – almost immediately left the Conservative caucus: the country doesn’t want or need another election, declared Chris D’Entremont; probably after having secured a personal goodie from the government side, said fellow MPs claiming to be made of sterner stuff.
The Bloc Quebecois, almost gleefully, said announced that it would meet, discuss and vote as one. By the way, none of its conditions respecting pro-Quebec concerns had been met, so… The NDP, or remnants thereof, had not yet met but they are likely to applaud the favouring of rebuilding the Philippino Community Center in downtown Vancouver (a decent and moral objective -irrespective of the budget) destroyed by terrorists earlier in the year. Oh, by the way, the interim leader says the NDP are likely to object to the loss of “8,000 well-paying jobs” as the civil service is downsized, so they might not even show up to vote.
There you have it. The most important number targeted by the 498-page accounting proposal is 171: the number of MPs the government needs to support its Spending Plan, or ask the Governor General to dissolve the House and go to an election. It currently can count on 169.
In Italy, and in other European countries, defeat in Parliament may be cause enough to change the government but not necessarily prompt an election to change the elected representatives.
Another number of consequence is the $141 billion in additional spending to permit eventual pivoting (redirecting) the flow of the Canadian economy as it adjusts to meet the demands by President Trump in respect of increased military spending and stripping of manufacturing and other downstream economic activity “sucked” into the USA. The budget envisions a deficit of $78.4 billion – $ 36 billion more than last year as it borrows ($900 for every man woman and child) to make up the shortfall. That is not Trump’s problem.
What may be an additional problem in Canada is the emergence of the usual “whipping boy” – immigration. This will be cut to less than 1% of the country’s population as incurred costs have been “gamed” by those who do not have Canada’s best interests in mind, according to former Minister Miller.
In the pic below, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Prime Minister Mark Carney show the 2025 Budget book (photo from Twitter X – @FP_Champagne)
